To make important decisions and place big bets on the future, we need to first make sense of the present moment.

Every sector is navigating historic transformation stemming from geopolitical instability, the rapid arrival of artificial intelligence, global demographic shifts, and climate change. For the first time in global history, people over 65 outnumber children under 5 years old. Meanwhile, two-thirds of people around the world say they are using AI on a regular basis, even though the majority of those users don’t have any formal training. To make important decisions and place successful bets on the future, leaders need to first make sense of the present moment. This can be inspiring and empowering: As Octavia Butler wrote: “The very act of trying to look ahead to discern possibilities and offer warnings is in itself an act of hope.”

Luminary Labs is known for its future-facing work — and for having a finger on the pulse of what’s happening right now. Whether we’re tracking trends through our own internal intelligence platform or connecting dots and identifying patterns on behalf of our clients, we have a practice of nowcasting to enable the future. We see it as a game of chess — if we know where the pieces are on the board today and consider where they may move, we can help our clients thrive in each possible scenario.

In the past, many have focused on futurecasting. But to successfully plan for the future, we must practice nowcasting — and it’s already a common approach in other fields. In meteorology, nowcasting refers to short-term forecasting that uses real-time data and high-resolution models to predict the next few hours of weather. In economics, nowcasting is the practice of using recent data to update key economic indicators that are otherwise published infrequently. (For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publishes a daily inflation nowcast.)

We’re launching a new series to share how we nowcast for ourselves and our clients. Through the end of 2025, we’ll be publishing in-depth articles focused on some of the biggest problems and opportunities of this decade. We’re talking with experts and asking important questions — What’s true now? What do we know for certain? What are the near-term possibilities and longer-term implications? — as we explore intersections between far-reaching topics:

• Who we are — people, populations, and demographics.
• How we work — automation, AI, economy, labor, and employment.
• How we power it all — energy, infrastructure, and climate.
• How we connect — community, social connection, loneliness, and media.
• The rules we live by — institutions, geopolitics, trade, and migration.