From energy scarcity to energy abundance.

Human progress is deeply connected to our ability to harness energy. Fire enabled the agricultural revolution. Fossil fuels powered the industrial age. Each advancement triggered population changes — namely in growth — which demanded even more energy.

But today’s moment is different. 20th-century gains resulted in the most radical demographic shift in history: As the population ages without replacing itself, the nation will become majority-older with significantly fewer workers supporting far more consumers. Those workers will need to achieve unprecedented productivity levels, which means automation isn’t optional — it’s table stakes. Second, artificial intelligence is emerging as the technology that could deliver those productivity gains, but AI itself is driving an unprecedented surge in energy demand. The math is unforgiving: An inverted demographic pyramid requires dramatic productivity gains per worker, raising questions about how we will power it all.

Over the last century, energy debates often centered on managing scarcity and minimizing harm from finite, polluting resources. Binary thinking — renewables versus fossil fuels, nuclear versus wind — fortified camps championing single solutions based on the trade-offs they were willing to accept. But the 21st century demands a different approach. Not only do we have significantly more energy options available, but we can engineer solutions to reduce the health and climate impacts and bend production cost curves. The cost of solar energy, wind power, and batteries has dropped so much in the past decade that these renewables can now compete with oil and coal, even without subsidies.

The crisis isn’t that we lack solutions; it’s that we do not have financial, economic, and legislative models that support simultaneous investment in a diverse portfolio of energy technologies needed to arrive at genuine energy abundance, resilience, and security. Abundant, inexpensive energy at scale becomes the economic engine itself. With it, we could produce clean hydrogen, desalinate water, and create sustainable aviation fuel. The potential extends beyond economic growth to health outcomes, climate solutions, and fundamentally different possibilities for a society facing structural demographic and labor changes.

What’s true right now

Human advancement has always depended on energy and created trade-offs. The shift to agriculture required clearing forests and intensive labor but enabled permanent settlements. The industrial revolution’s coal-powered factories lifted millions from poverty while polluting cities. Today’s energy choices follow this same pattern: Each source offers new possibilities while creating downstream effects in different places, at different times, affecting different people.

Understanding these trade-offs requires looking at the full range of energy options available today. Energy sources fall into several categories: fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), nuclear (conventional and small modular reactors), renewables (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, marine, biomass), and emerging technologies like hydrogen and fusion. Shifting to cleaner sources is proving complex: While renewables are growing rapidly, surging global demand means we currently need all energy sources to meet consumption needs.

Oil — refined into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel — is the world’s largest energy source. It offers unmatched energy density and established infrastructure. But it also releases carbon dioxide that drives climate change, as well as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides that cause respiratory diseases and premature deaths. Extraction damages ecosystems through spills and habitat destruction, while dependence fuels geopolitical conflicts and economic volatility. The transition ahead isn’t about eliminating oil immediately but dramatically reducing consumption where alternatives exist — passenger vehicles, electricity generation, and heating. Hard-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation, shipping, and certain industrial processes will require oil longer, though innovation in sustainable fuels and hydrogen continues. The challenge lies in accelerating reductions where feasible while managing complex infrastructure transitions.

Natural gas — which is 85% to 95% methane — accounts for about 42% of U.S. electricity generation. It burns cleaner than coal, but methane leaks. Individual health is affected by poor air quality from gas stove leaks, and on a macro level, methane traps more than 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide. Methane leaks are underresearched and undermeasured. However, about 30% of these emissions could be avoided at no net cost through leak detection and equipment upgrades, with total reductions of 75% possible through known measures. Funding the fixes would simultaneously reduce climate damage, improve air quality, and capture $1 billion in lost gas annually.

Nuclear power is the largest clean source of energy, producing nearly half of the nation’s emissions-free electricity. Once villainized, nuclear is increasingly considered core to solving the energy crisis. In addition to its clean capacity, modern nuclear solutions address the technological problem of waste disposal. The introduction of small modular reactors (SMRs) creates additional benefits in the form of modularity and a reduction in cost. While the technology works, deployment is expensive and slow. The first SMRs are expected to be built this decade, with accelerated deployment in the 2030s, meaning projects like Amazon’s 12-reactor Washington facility won’t generate electricity for another decade. 

Solar energy converts sunlight into electricity through photovoltaic panels or concentrated heat systems. It’s a clean, renewable source producing zero emissions during operation, with costs dramatically dropping as demand increases. And the abundance is real: The Earth receives approximately 173,000 terawatts of solar energy continuously — more than 10,000 times the world’s total energy use and enough energy every hour to power the entire planet for a year. However, solar only generates when the sun shines, requiring battery storage for reliability, and grid connection delays can stretch years due to permitting and infrastructure constraints. The U.S. installed 50 gigawatts of new solar in 2024 — the largest single-year addition by any energy technology in two decades — with solar and storage accounting for 84% of new grid capacity. Yet growth faces headwinds: Labor shortages, equipment constraints, policy roadbocks and interconnection bottlenecks persist. While U.S. factories can now meet domestic panel demand, getting projects from approval to operation remains a critical challenge.

Wind energy generated over 10% of U.S. electricity in 2024, providing reliable, carbon-free power with proven technology deployed for decades. In March and April 2024, wind generation exceeded coal for an extended period for the first time. Yet growth has stalled: The U.S. showed no wind capacity growth from 2023 to 2024, following record additions in 2020 and 2021. The easiest onshore sites with good transmission access have been built; remaining sites require harder decisions about land use and grid connection, as well as community conversations to navigate local opposition. Offshore wind faces steeper challenges, including policy barriers; projects representing over half of pipeline capacity were canceled by the end of 2023 due to cost overruns and complex permitting across dozens of agencies. Streamlined approval processes and transmission investment could restart growth.

Geothermal systems create artificial underground heat reservoirs by using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing — the same fracking techniques used to extract oil and gas — to access heat anywhere underground, not just at volcanic hotspots. In September 2024, Fervo Energy achieved record-breaking results, tripling their pilot output and demonstrating performance a decade ahead of government projections. The challenge is dual: scaling beyond single projects and managing fracking’s risks. Any fracking project carries earthquake risk — a hazard that plagued previous geothermal efforts in South Korea and Switzerland — though Fervo reduces this by fracking in smaller stages with extensive seismic monitoring. Beyond fracking, other types of advanced technology show potential: Quaise is using microwaves to dig deeper holes than traditional drilling. The barrier isn’t technology; it’s funding enough diverse pilots simultaneously to validate the approach across different geologies, develop supply chains, and demonstrate that earthquake risks can be managed at scale.

Hydropower generates electricity by capturing flowing water’s energy through dams or run-of-river systems, accounting for about 6% of U.S. electricity generation and remaining the largest renewable electricity source globally. It provides reliable, dispatchable baseload power that quickly ramps up or down to match grid demand, with no direct emissions and decades-long operational lifespans. However, large dam projects fragment river ecosystems, block fish migration, alter water temperature and sediment flow, and devastate downstream habitats. Dam construction often displaces communities and submerges culturally significant lands. Reservoirs emit methane from decomposing organic matter, with higher emissions in tropical regions. Most suitable sites in developed nations are already dammed, limiting expansion. Modern run-of-river systems and improved fish passage technology can mitigate some impacts.

Marine energy — including wave, tidal, ocean current, and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) — harnesses the ocean’s power to generate electricity with low-to-zero direct emissions and highly predictable output, especially for tidal systems following lunar cycles. Unlike intermittent solar and wind, ocean energy offers consistent baseload power with enormous resource potential. However, installation and maintenance costs remain prohibitively high due to harsh saltwater environments that corrode equipment and complicate repairs. Marine infrastructure can disrupt ecosystems, affecting fish migration, marine mammals, and seabed habitats. The technology remains in early stages with limited commercial deployment. In September 2025, the first U.S. wave energy project launched at the Port of Los Angeles, marking early progress for the technology. Investment in corrosion-resistant materials and standardized designs could unlock the potential of this reliable, renewable source.

Biomass energy — burning organic materials like wood, agricultural waste, and energy crops for power and heat — accounts for about 1% of U.S. electricity generation. It provides dispatchable baseload energy, regardless of weather, and can utilize waste that would otherwise decompose in landfills. However, the “carbon neutral” label is misleading: Burning biomass releases carbon immediately, while regrowing trees takes decades or centuries to recapture emissions, creating significant carbon debt. While waste-only systems and improved efficiency could help, biomass remains contentious given its immediate emissions and long carbon payback periods.

Hydrogen energy can power vehicles, generate electricity, and fuel industrial processes by burning or using special fuel cells that combine it with oxygen to produce energy and water. Today, 95% of U.S. hydrogen comes from natural gas, releasing significant carbon emissions.  Hydrogen shows promise for industries difficult to electrify, like steel mills, chemical plants, and cement production.  Widespread adoption requires cheaper renewable energy, better water-splitting technology, and new pipelines and storage facilities. Safety concerns include hydrogen’s ability to weaken steel pipes and its tendency to increase other greenhouse gases when leaked. Currently, hydrogen supplies only a tiny fraction of global energy needs.

Fusion energy –– which replicates the sun’s power by fusing hydrogen atoms –– achieved a  historic breakthrough in 2022 when scientists produced 3.15 megajoules of fusion energy from 2.05 megajoules of laser input. However, the facility required approximately 300-400 megajoules to power those lasers — roughly 100 times more than the reaction produced. Fusion promises virtually unlimited clean energy with minimal radioactive waste and no meltdown risk, but ITER, the world’s largest experimental reactor, won’t begin testing until 2035, with demonstration reactors planned for the 2040s-2050s. Reaching commercial viability will require decades of engineering work on laser efficiency, target optimization, and materials that withstand extreme conditions. Even optimistic scenarios place commercially viable fusion plants in the 2040s, conservative estimates in the 2060s — too late for near-term climate goals –– but a worthwhile endeavor for future generations.

Impacts and implications

Individuals and society

Most people want to save the planet, keep their smartphones, access telemedicine, and work fewer hours. These aren’t contradictions; they’re all achievable with abundant, clean energy. But the path there requires individuals to confront an uncomfortable truth: Opposing energy infrastructure while expecting modern conveniences doesn’t work. When individuals say “yes” to technology but “not in my backyard” to the energy infrastructure that powers it, they’re voting for scarcity in a future that desperately needs abundance. Enjoying the benefits of modern technology and convenience may also include accepting the present trade-offs of fossil fuels — or making them cleaner — while we build infrastructure for the future. An aging population will require more energy, not less, to power their homes, healthcare systems, caregiving automation, mobility options, and the services that let people live independently longer.

Individuals have unprecedented agency in this transition. Homeowners can now collect solar energy, use what they need, and sell surplus back to the grid at peak hours, shifting from passive consumers to active market participants who earn income from their rooftops. Every energy decision — from what powers a home to which community energy projects to support — compounds into either scarcity or abundance. The choice to install a heat pump, buy an electric vehicle, support grid modernization at town halls, or simply understand energy infrastructure’s impact on quality of life might seem small. But these decisions aggregate into the energy system that will either enable or constrain what’s possible as society transforms.

Business

Every business is becoming an energy business, whether executives realize it or not. Tech giants like Amazon, Meta, and Google are signing nuclear power deals, building renewable capacity, and shopping multigigawatt data center projects to utilities across multiple regions. These companies are outliers today, but tomorrow, they will be recognized as early movers in a shift where AI becomes table stakes for competitiveness. When automation isn’t optional, “how will you power your AI strategy?” becomes as critical as “which models will you use?”

Annual planning has never been more uncertain. AI isn’t just a new line item — it has the potential to reshape entire budgets, forecasts, and fundamentally what a business does, where it operates, and who it employs. The unknowns multiply from there: Will the AI transition unfold in tandem with an equally transformative energy transition, or will politics and funding constraints choke progress? At what point should businesses stop waiting and start investing directly in their own energy infrastructure — such as on-site solar, small modular reactors, and long-term clean energy contracts — and even participating in energy markets as both consumers and producers? Organizations that see energy as someone else’s problem will quickly find themselves competing against rivals who saw it as a strategic portfolio decision.

Government and policy

Structural demographic shifts and AI adoption require that policymakers and governments move beyond the scarcity thinking that has defined energy policy for decades. The challenge isn’t choosing between cheap energy and clean energy; it’s building policy frameworks that deliver both by accelerating the deployment of abundant, diverse clean energy sources that will power our future. Navigating these trade-offs won’t be easy. In the short term, some decisions will be unpopular or economically painful. But as a country, the United States would benefit from coalescing around a longer-range vision that simultaneously addresses volatile geopolitics, an aging population, the breakneck speed of AI development, human health, climate change, and the sustainability of the planet itself. These challenges aren’t separate — they’re interconnected, and energy abundance is the thread that runs through solutions to all of them.

Government’s role is to build on-ramps to that future while operating in today’s scarcity. This means fostering hundreds of energy pilots across every technology and scale. Government must cut the interconnection red tape, streamline permitting for critical infrastructure, incentivize patient capital that thinks in decades rather than quarters, invest in workforce development, and build the transmission backbone that lets energy flow from where it’s generated to where it’s needed. The path forward isn’t about making a single bet — it’s about funding enough diverse approaches simultaneously that the right answers can emerge, scale, and adapt, resulting in technology solutions that meet the needs of our changing demographics and automated future. We can’t wait for abundance to appear. We need to build the future we want.

 

If you have burning questions about our present moment, or if you’d like to chat with us about how to use nowcasting as part of your own organization’s planning and strategy, we’d love to hear from you: Email nowcasting@luminary-labs.com to connect with us.

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Photo by NASA on Unsplash.